The Online Edition of the Annandale High School Newspaper.

The A-Blast

The Online Edition of the Annandale High School Newspaper.

The A-Blast

The Online Edition of the Annandale High School Newspaper.

The A-Blast

Bin Laden in the background

A newly released audiotape allegedly recorded by al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden criticized the Obama administration’s continued war efforts in Afghanistan, urged a resurgence of jihad in Israel and called for renewed extremist activities against Western governments.

But this jargon has become muted to the American ear, and interestingly the debate over whether bin Laden is in fact still alive has caused greater pandemonium among American experts than the content of his recently purported statements.

Some analysts argue that bin Laden broadcasts including videos, audiotapes, and recruitment paraphernalia have been forged since perhaps as early as November 2001.

“The last relatively reliable bin Laden sighting was in late 2001,”  said former Central Intelligence Agency operative Robert Baer.

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Although since several videos have been released in the eight years since then, many are suspicious about their authenticity. “Some videos show him with a Semitic aquiline nose, while others show him with a shorter, broader one. Next to that, differences between colors and styles of beard are small stuff,” said Angelo Codevilla, a professor of international relations at Boston University.

Experts go further, citing numerous reports of terminal diseases inflicting bin Laden. Several have hypothesized that illnesses including kidney failure, stroke, lung damage and typhoid fever could have caused  bin Laden’s death.

Statements that bin Laden is dead, or has been dead for years, are as flimsy as assumptions that he is alive. Fortunately, this is not a quandary that needs immediate answering; while bin Laden’s current status has been the focus of intense debate, from an operational standpoint whether Osama bin Laden is alive or not is of little consequence. Even if he is not medically dead, he is operationally dead.

U.S. operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan have successfully forced al Qaeda leadership into paranoid hiding. A disconnected bunker in Waziristan is no place to organize operations, and for over eight years bin Laden and his affiliates have been unable to successfully orchestrate a terror attack against the U.S.

Additionally hindering bin Laden’s capabilities are stringent limitations on communication through traditional means due to the National Security Agency’s astute ears listening to phone calls, focused eyes reading emails and analysts monitoring internet networking. As a result, communication from leadership to active cells has become dangerous and even counterproductive toward successfully running a terror operation.

Therefore, a hierarchical chain of command is impractical and dangerous to long-term operational capabilities. Greater connectivity with known al Qaeda leaders causes a greater risk of being identified by intelligence agencies. Thus, cells are increasingly disconnected from central leadership to deepen anonymity. This element, in conjunction with U.S. induced elimination of key al Qaeda leadership, has forced a structural reorganization of al Qaeda on an international scale. Leadership occurs exclusively at the local level with a disconnect to higher ranking administrators.

Consequently, bin Laden and his formerly high ranking affiliates have essentially become irrelevant.

Illustrating bin Laden’s decline in importance is the 2006 New York Times report by Mark Mazetti that, “the Central Intelligence Agency has closed a unit that for a decade had the mission of hunting Osama bin Laden and his top lieutenants.”

C.I.A. recognized that bin Laden’s potential to invoke harm on the U.S. had effectively been hindered by 2006 and ended its specific pursuits to locate him. But while bin Laden’s operational effectiveness has become null, his psychological pull  is still extremely relevant.

Bin Laden has become a symbol of successful resistance to the American behemoth among budding Islamic extremists. He has evaded capture despite numerous attempts to take him or his life. The alleged $75 billion U.S. intelligence budget has failed to find him. The $200 billion of U.S. expenditures in Afghanistan have not captured the man and he continues to, arguably, release vindictive audio recordings to the world. Thus, whether in body or spirit, he remains a threat to the U.S., although to a lesser degree and in a different fashion than his threat during the late ‘90s.

Bin Laden is now little more than a recruitment tool for al Qaeda and anti-U.S. non-state actors. This is significant enough to warrant a continued effort to locate him or conversely prove his alleged death, but not significant enough to invoke direct, genuine fear among his would-be targets. Bin Laden, if not definitively dead, is certainly incapable of orchestrating a major terror attack. In his recent audio tape bin Laden claimed Obama is “powerless,” but perhaps in this instance the “b” should in fact be smudged and replaced with an “s”.

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Bin Laden in the background